The Government of Pakistan is all set to unveil the Pakistan Economic Survey 2024–25 today, a comprehensive document that outlines the country’s economic performance over the past fiscal year. This annual survey serves as a precursor to the federal budget, providing insights into key economic indicators such as GDP growth, inflation trends, fiscal deficit, trade balance, and sectoral developments.
As the economic landscape remains influenced by global financial shifts, political instability, and local reforms, the 2024–25 Economic Survey is expected to carry important revelations. Stakeholders across sectors—ranging from agriculture to industry and services—are keenly awaiting this policy document for clues about the government’s fiscal direction and reform priorities.
Overview of the Pakistan Economic Survey
What Is the Pakistan Economic Survey
The Pakistan Economic Survey is an annual publication by the Ministry of Finance, which presents a detailed account of the country’s macroeconomic indicators, sector-wise performance, and policy measures. Released a day before the federal budget, the survey acts as a snapshot of economic progress and challenges.
Purpose and Significance of the Survey
The Economic Survey serves as a critical tool for policymakers, economists, investors, and international observers. It informs budget-making, identifies reform areas, and outlines performance across agriculture, industry, and services. It also offers comparative statistics that reflect the year-on-year development of Pakistan’s economy.
Key Areas to Watch in the 2024–25 Survey
GDP Growth Rate Estimates
The growth rate for FY 2024–25 is likely to be a focal point, given the challenges Pakistan faced in terms of inflationary pressure, high interest rates, and political uncertainty. Preliminary estimates suggest that GDP growth may remain under 3%, indicating a slower-than-expected recovery.
Inflation Trends and Price Stability
Rising food and energy prices have continued to burden household incomes. Analysts are watching closely to see how consumer price index (CPI) inflation has moved over the fiscal year. The survey is expected to provide data on headline inflation, core inflation, and underlying factors such as global commodity prices and rupee depreciation.
External Sector Performance
Trade Balance and Export Growth
Pakistan’s trade deficit and export competitiveness will be analyzed, with attention to textile exports, remittances from overseas Pakistanis, and changes in global demand. Export stagnation and reduced remittance inflows may feature prominently in this year’s survey.
Foreign Exchange Reserves and Rupee Stability
With support from IMF programs and bilateral lending, foreign exchange reserves saw periodic stabilization. The survey will likely shed light on the rupee’s performance and policy actions taken by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP).
Sectoral Performance Insights
Agriculture Sector: Resilience Despite Climate Pressures
Pakistan’s agriculture sector is expected to have shown moderate growth despite major setbacks from climate change impacts such as floods and droughts. The performance of key crops like wheat, rice, sugarcane, and cotton will be analyzed, along with government subsidies, urea distribution, and water management reforms.
Industrial Sector: Mixed Signals Amid Volatility
Manufacturing and Construction
The large-scale manufacturing (LSM) index is likely to remain sluggish due to high energy costs, import restrictions, and supply chain disruptions. The construction sector’s performance will be tied to cement production, real estate activity, and housing schemes like the Naya Pakistan Housing Program.
Energy and Mining
Energy availability, pricing, and circular debt will be addressed in the survey. Updates on oil and gas exploration, coal mining in Thar, and renewable energy initiatives such as solar and wind power projects will be included.
Services Sector: Tech and Banking Push
Telecom, IT, and Startups
Pakistan’s digital economy may show promising trends, especially in the IT services export segment. The Economic Survey could highlight growth in e-commerce, fintech, and freelance work—key areas where Pakistan is gaining ground globally.
Banking, Insurance, and Finance
Financial inclusion, branchless banking, and digital payment infrastructure are anticipated to be key highlights in the services sector review. The role of microfinance and private banks in supporting small enterprises may also be featured.
Employment and Labor Market Trends
Youth Unemployment and Skills Gap
Pakistan’s rising youth population faces a major employment challenge. The survey is expected to provide unemployment rate statistics and discuss initiatives in vocational training, skill development, and entrepreneurship promotion.
Informal Economy and Job Creation
With a significant portion of employment generated by the informal sector, the government’s measures to document and formalize economic activity will be discussed, including tax incentives and registration drives.
Social Sector Expenditure
Health and Education Investments
The survey will evaluate government spending on critical social sectors like health and education. With the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic still lingering, health infrastructure and universal healthcare access will be reviewed. Education reforms, digital literacy, and school enrollment metrics are also expected to feature.
Poverty Alleviation and Social Protection
Initiatives like the Ehsaas Program, the Benazir Income Support Program (BISP), and targeted subsidies will be analyzed for their impact on poverty and social inequality. Updates on food security, nutrition programs, and utility support will also be included.
Government Debt and Fiscal Management
Budget Deficit and Revenue Collection
The fiscal deficit remains a major challenge. The survey will outline tax-to-GDP ratio performance, FBR’s tax collection efficiency, and revenue shortfalls. Reforms under the IMF program may also be mentioned in terms of subsidy reduction and improved governance.
Public Debt Sustainability
Pakistan’s public debt has crossed critical thresholds, raising concerns about long-term sustainability. The survey may highlight domestic vs. external debt composition, interest payments, and restructuring efforts with international lenders.
Policy Reforms and Economic Outlook
IMF Program and International Support
The Economic Survey will likely cover the structural reforms mandated under IMF conditions, including subsidy cuts, tax reforms, SOE privatization, and monetary tightening. Progress on compliance with IMF benchmarks will be scrutinized.
Upcoming Fiscal Policy Priorities
As Pakistan heads into the 2025–26 fiscal year, the survey will hint at future policy direction—whether growth-oriented or austerity-driven. Clarity on energy reforms, tax base expansion, and development priorities will be valuable for economic forecasting.
Political and Global Influences
Regional Stability and Economic Impact
Geopolitical factors such as relations with India, China, and Afghanistan play a role in economic planning. The survey may reflect on cross-border trade; investment flows under CPEC and regional energy cooperation.
Global Economic Trends and Risks
International inflation, interest rate hikes by central banks, and supply chain bottlenecks affect Pakistan’s economic prospects. The survey will likely place the country’s economic journey within this global context.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Pakistan Economic Survey?
It is an official annual document released by the Ministry of Finance that reviews the economic performance of the country for the past fiscal year.
When is the Economic Survey 2024–25 being released?
The survey is scheduled for release today, one day before the national budget for FY 2025–26.
Who presents the Economic Survey in Pakistan?
Typically, the Federal Minister for Finance or the Advisor on Finance presents the survey at a press conference.
Why is the Economic Survey important?
It informs policy decisions, highlights economic strengths and weaknesses, and sets the tone for the federal budget.
What sectors are covered in the survey?
Key sectors include agriculture, industry, services, trade, fiscal management, education, health, and social protection.
What are the expected highlights of the 2024–25 survey?
Major highlights include GDP growth rate, inflation trends, trade balance, fiscal deficit, sectoral performance, and IMF program compliance.
How does the survey affect the common citizen?
The survey influences budget policies that affect employment, subsidies, tax rates, and social spending, directly impacting daily life.
Where can the full Economic Survey be accessed?
The official document is published on the Ministry of Finance’s website and is also available through news portals and economic research platforms.
Conclusion
The Pakistan Economic Survey 2024–25 is set to provide a detailed picture of the country’s economic health, outlining sector-wise performance and future policy direction. As the nation prepares for its annual budget, this survey will serve as a guiding document for reforms, investments, and fiscal adjustments in a complex economic environment.
